Section 2: Economic regions and regional portraits Section 2: Economic regions and regional portraits

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Regional portrait: Atlantic provinces

The Halifax economic region saw the largest population increase in the Atlantic provinces^Note 1

Of the economic regions (ERs) in the Atlantic provinces, the Halifax ER (N.S.) posted the largest annual population growth (+10.3 per thousand) between July 1, 2014 and June 30, 2015. It was followed by the New Brunswick ERs of Moncton–Richibucto and Fredericton–Oromocto, with annual population increases of 8.2 per thousand and 5.7 per thousand, respectively. Of the 15 ERs in the Atlantic provinces, only two others posted population increases: Avalon Peninsula (N.L.), at 4.4 per thousand, and Prince Edward Island at 1.9 per thousand.

The Halifax ER (N.S.) also had the highest population on July 1, 2015, with 417,900 residents, ahead of the Avalon Peninsula ER (N.L.) and the Moncton–Richibucto ER (N.B.), whose populations were 277,700 and 212,300 respectively.

Two-thirds of the ERs in the Atlantic provinces saw their population decline

Of the 15 ERs in the Atlantic provinces, 10 saw their population decline between July 1, 2014 and July 1, 2015. The largest population decrease in the Atlantic provinces occurred in the ER of South Coast–Burin Peninsula (N.L.), which saw its population decline by approximately 600 persons (-15.6 per thousand). Since 2010, this region’s population has gone from 38,600 to 36,300. The other ERs that posted the largest decreases include Cape Breton (N.S.) and Campbellton–Miramichi (N.B.), with annual growth rates of -10.5 per thousand and -10.0 per thousand, respectively.

Of the 10 ERs across Canada with the largest decreases, four were in the Atlantic provinces.

The population growth rate for the most recent period (2014/2015) was below the average annual rate for the last five-year period (2010-2015) in 12 of the 15 ERs in the Atlantic provinces, which reflects an accelerating population decline.

Population losses due to natural increase and internal migration

The five ERs with positive population growth were characterized by positive or nil natural increase, net international migration and net intraprovincial migration. By contrast, in the 10 ERs with negative growth, natural increase, international migration and intraprovincial migration were almost all negative or nil. The only international migration rate greater than 1 per thousand in these 10 ERs was in the Saint John–St. Stephen ER (N.B.) (+2.9 per thousand). Lastly, net interprovincial migration was negative or nil in every ER in the Atlantic provinces.

With a rate of 2.4 per thousand, the Halifax ER (N.S.) had the highest natural increase of the Atlantic provinces, where the average was -0.6 per thousand. However, it was still lower than the rate for Canada (+3.4 per thousand). The Fredericton–Oromocto ER (N.B.) was the only other ER that posted a natural increase. By contrast, a number of ERs recorded natural decreases, indicating that there were more estimated deaths than births. For example, the ERs of Cape Breton (N.S.) and Notre Dame–Central Bonavista Bay (N.L.) posted the lowest rates of natural increase (-4.8 per thousand). These two ERs had the lowest rates for Canadian ERs since the early 2000s. In all, of the 10 ERs with the greatest natural decrease, seven were in the Atlantic provinces.

In the Atlantic provinces, the ER with the highest population growth resulting from international migration was the Prince Edward Island ER (+9.8 per thousand), exceeding even the national average (+5.3 per thousand). However, in most of the Atlantic ERs (9 of 15), international migration remains a marginal factor, with negligible growth of -1 to 1 per thousand.

In 14 of the 15 Atlantic ERs, net interprovincial migration was negative. Halifax (N.S.) was the only Atlantic ER to have posted nil interprovincial migration losses. The largest decline attributable to interprovincial migration occurred in the Prince Edward Island ER, with a rate of -8.5 per thousand, representing a net loss of 1,200 people. This was the second lowest rate in Canada, after the Northwest Territories ER (-10.3 per thousand).

In both Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador, the gains from intraprovincial migration were concentrated in a single ER. These ERs were Halifax (N.S.) and Avalon Peninsula (N.L.) which had increases of 1,500 and 1,100 persons, respectively. In New Brunswick, two ERs posted positive net intraprovincial migration. They were the Moncton–Richibucto ER (N.B.) (+1,000 persons) and the Fredericton–Oromocto ER (N.B.) (+500 persons).

Older age structure of the population in all ERs in the Atlantic provincesthan in the rest of Canada

On July 1, 2015, none of the Atlantic ERs had a proportion of 0- to 14-year-olds above the national average (16.0%). Furthermore, the proportion of persons aged 65 and older in each Atlantic ER was higher than in Canada as a whole (16.1%), except in the Halifax ER (N.S.) (14.7%) and the Avalon Peninsula ER (N.L.) (16.1%).

Of all ERs in Canada, the Southern ER (N.S.) had the largest proportion of persons 65 years and older (24.4%) on July 1, 2015. In the Atlantic provinces, the Halifax ER (N.S.) had the smallest proportion of persons in this age group (14.7%).

The 0-14 age group accounted for 15.9% of the population of the Prince Edward Island ER, the highest proportion in the Atlantic provinces. Conversely, the lowest proportion of children aged 0 to 14 was in the Campbellton–Miramichi ER (N.B.) (12.2%). On July 1, 2015, the number of persons aged 65 and older was greater than the number aged 0 to 14 in every Atlantic ER. However, three regions had a proportion of working-age persons (15 to 64 years) above the national average (67.8%)—the Halifax ER (N.S.), the Avalon Peninsula ER (N.L.) and the Fredericton–Oromocto ER (N.B.)—while the Southern ER (N.S.) had the lowest proportion (63.2%) among the Atlantic regions.

The relatively old age structure of several ERs in the Atlantic provinces can be attributed to lower fertility than in the rest of Canada. In that regard, the total fertility rates^Note 2 of Newfoundland and Labrador (1.45), Nova Scotia (1.47) and New Brunswick (1.54) are below the national average (1.61), while that of Prince Edward Island is similar (1.62). In addition, persistent negative net internal migration, especially among persons aged 20 to 29 years, contributes to the aging of the population in Atlantic ERs. The decrease in the interprovincial migration rates for this age group in 2014/2015 was very high in Newfoundland and Labrador (-20.6 per thousand), Prince Edward Island (-43.8 per thousand), Nova Scotia (-8.9 per thousand) and New Brunswick (-20.7 per thousand).

Figure 2.1 compares the Atlantic ER with the youngest population (Prince Edward Island) and the one with the oldest population (Southern, N.S.). The main finding is that even the youngest ER has an aging age structure, as shown by the predominance of persons aged 50 to 69 years in the Prince Edward Island ER. However, the older age structure of Southern (N.S.) is discernible from the top of the pyramid, which is wider for the Southern ER (N.S.) than for the Prince Edward Island ER. In addition, the working-age population is younger in Prince Edward Island than in Southern (N.S.). Although the proportion of persons aged 15 to 64 years is similar in both ERs, Prince Edward Island has a larger proportion of persons aged 15 to 39 years, while Southern (N.S.) has more persons aged 40 to 64 years. Lastly, the proportion of young people 14 years and younger is higher in the Prince Edward Island ER than in the Southern ER (N.S.).

South Coast–Burin Peninsula is the ER where the median age increased the most during the last 10 years in all of Canada

Between July 1, 2005 and July 1, 2015, the change in median age in each of the 15 ERs was above the national average (+1.9 years), except for Halifax (N.S.). This reflects faster aging of all ERs in the Atlantic provinces compared with the rest of Canada. Nevertheless, on July 1, 2015, the median age in the Halifax ER (N.S.) (39.8 years) remained below that of Canada (40.5 years).

Population aging was faster in the ER of South Coast–Burin Peninsula (N.L.) than in any other ER in the Atlantic provinces or Canada. Its median age went from 42.6 years to 50.1 years between 2005 and 2015, an increase of 7.5 years. Two other ERs had a median age of 50 years or older, namely Southern (N.S.), at 50.4 years, and Campbellton–Miramichi (N.B.) at 50.0 years. The Halifax ER (N.S.) posted the most modest increase in median age among the Atlantic provinces, up 1.9 years over 10 years.

Regional portrait: Quebec

Montréal and its surrounding areas posted the strongest population growth in Quebec

Between July 1, 2014 and June 30, 2015, the strongest population growth was recorded in the Laurentides ER (+11.1 per thousand). Only one other region posted an increase greater than that of Canada as a whole (+8.6 per thousand), namely the Nord-du-Québec ER (+10.2 per thousand). It was followed by the other regions surrounding Montréal (+7.2 per thousand), namely the Laval ER (+8.2 per thousand), the Montérégie ER (+7.5 per thousand) and the Lanaudière ER (+7.5 per thousand). The Montréal ER had 1,999,800 residents on July 1, 2015, or 24.2% of the province’s population.

Eastern Quebec ERs saw their populations shrink during the last year

In 2014/2015, the four Quebec ERs with the greatest population decreases were in eastern Quebec. Province-wide, the population that decreased the most was that of Côte-Nord. This ER had 93,900 residents on July 1, 2015, down 1,200 people (-12.9 per thousand) compared with the previous year. The Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine ER, which had seen the largest population decreases in 2013/2014, was in second place in 2014/2015, with a decrease of 600 persons (-6.0 per thousand). Three other regions had significant decreases, namely the Bas-Saint-Laurent ER (-2.9 per thousand), the Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean ER (-1.6 per thousand) and the Abitibi–Témiscamingue ER (-1.4 per thousand).

Drivers of population growth in Quebec vary from one ER to another

For Montréal and its surrounding regions—which all posted strong population growth—the main drivers of growth varied. In the ERs of Laval and Montréal, population growth was essentially fed by international migration, while population growth in the Laurentides and Lanaudière ERs was mainly attributable to intraprovincial migration. Growth in the Montérégie ER was mainly a result of natural increase. The population decreases in regions with negative growth were primarily the result of negative net intraprovincial migration.

The Nord-du-Québec ER stood out sharply from the 16 other Quebec ERs because of its natural increase. With a significantly larger number of births than deaths, it posted the strongest natural increase (+12.2 per thousand) in the province, far ahead of the Outaouais ER (+3.8 per thousand). It was also the strongest rate among ERs in Eastern and Central Canada. Elsewhere in Quebec, the number of births exceeded the number of deaths in most ERs, except Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine and Mauricie. These two ERs posted natural increase rates of -3.6 per thousand and -1.9 per thousand.

The Montréal ER differed from other ERs in Quebec because of the significance of international migration as the main factor in population growth. With an international migration growth rate of 14.3 per thousand, Montréal had the second highest rate in Canada for an ER, second to that of Winnipeg (Man.), which had a rate of 18.1 per thousand. The net international migration for the Montréal ER was +28,500 in 2014/2015, representing 68% of the net migration in the province. In Quebec, the second highest increase from international migration was recorded in the Laval ER (+6.1 per thousand, for net international migration of 2,600).

Net interprovincial migration was negative or nil in every ER in Quebec. However, the impact of this factor remained generally marginal, with more than half (10 of 17) of Quebec ERs posting low or neutral interprovincial migration rates, and interprovincial migration not being the main factor of growth or decline in the other ERs. In Quebec, the Montréal ER posted the lowest net interprovincial migration (-3.7 per thousand, for a net balance of -7,400 persons).

As for intraprovincial migration, the main migratory trend involves movements from the Montréal region to surrounding regions. The Montréal ER posted a net balance of -12,200 persons, for a rate of -6.1 per thousand, while the Montérégie, Laurentides and Lanaudière ERs posted strong positive net balances (+4,200, +4,100 and +2,100 persons, respectively). The highest rate in Quebec was in Laurentides (+7.0 per thousand), while the lowest was in Côte-Nord (-8.0 per thousand).

Most Quebec ERs among the oldest in Canada... with some exceptions

In Quebec, the age structure of the population of most ERs was older compared with the country as a whole. The Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine ER stood out because of its proportion of persons aged 65 years and older (24.0%), which was the highest in Quebec on July 1, 2015, and the second highest in Canada, after Southern, N.S. The Gaspésie-Îles-de-la-Madeleine ER also had the lowest proportion of persons aged 0 to 14 years (12.0%) in Canada. The Mauricie and Bas-Saint-Laurent ERs were also among the 10 oldest regions in Canada, in terms of both the proportion of persons 65 years and older and the proportion of persons under 15 years.

However, the Nord-du-Québec and Outaouais ERs had indicators showing the relative youthfulness of their populations compared with the national average, with a proportion of persons aged 65  and older that was below the national average and a proportion of persons aged 0 to 14 years that was above. In addition, the proportion of persons under 15 years was nearly twice as high in Nord-du-Québec than in Quebec as a whole (26.9% and 15.5%, respectively) and the proportion of persons 65 years and older was half the provincial proportion (7.3% versus 17.6%).

Figure 2.2 draws a parallel between the age pyramids of the two Quebec ERs with the oldest population (Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine) and the youngest population (Nord-du-Québec). The wide base of the age pyramid for the Nord-du-Québec ER reflects a young population. The 0-9 age group carries the most weight in this ER, in strong contrast to the situation in Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine, where people in their fifties and sixties represented the largest proportion of the population. The older age structure of the Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine ER is mainly attributable to continued natural decrease and to the especially large migration losses in the 18-24 age group. The Nord-du-Québec ER still has a relatively young age structure because of higher birth and death rates.

Median age in Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine is the highest in Canada

Besides having the highest proportion of persons aged 65 years and older in Quebec, Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine is the ER where the population aged most rapidly. Between July 1, 2005 and July 1, 2015, the median age of its population went from 44.8 years to 51.3 years, an increase of 6.5 years, compared with an increase of 1.9 years in Canada as a whole. This ER also has the highest median age in Canada.

Montréal, Nord-du-Québec, Capitale-Nationale and Laval were the only four ERs in Quebec that had smaller increases in median age than that of Canada (1.9 years). The Montréal ER posted the lowest increase in median age in Quebec (+0.3 years between 2005 and 2015). A very large amount of international migration involving mostly persons under the age of 35 (72.3% during the 2005-2015 period) may be a factor to explain this situation.

Regional portrait: Ontario

The most highly populated ERs are also the fastest growing ERs

Among all of Ontario’s economic regions, the Toronto ER registered the highest population increase (+11.7 per thousand) for the period from July 1, 2014 to June 30, 2015. The only other ER above the national average (+8.6 per thousand) was Kitchener–Waterloo–Barrie (+10.7 per thousand). Ottawa (8.0 per thousand) and Hamilton–Niagara Peninsula (7.5 per thousand) were in third and fourth place.

With an increase of 75,100 persons during the last year, the Toronto ER was home to 6,429,700 people on July 1, 2015, accounting for just under half of Ontario’s population (47%). It was also the most highly populated ER in Canada. The ERs of Hamilton–Niagara Peninsula, Ottawa and Kitchener–Waterloo–Barrie had populations of 1,457,300 (11%), 1,330,400 (10%) and 1,313,500 (10%), respectively.

The population of the two Northern Ontario ERs decreased over the last year

The biggest population decrease among Ontario ERs was in the Northeast ER, which posted a loss of approximately 2,800 inhabitants (-5.0 per thousand) between July 1, 2014 and June 30, 2015. The Northwest ER also recorded a population decrease, with a population growth rate of -2.1 per thousand (-500 inhabitants).

Compared to the annual growth rates of 2013/2014 and the annualized rates of the 2010-2015 period, the pace of population growth in 2014/2015 slowed down slightly or at best remained stable in each Ontario ER.

Migration was the determining factor in the growth of most Ontario ERs

In Ontario, among the ERs that registered population growth between 2014 and 2015, international migration or intraprovincial migration was the main growth driver. The Toronto and Ottawa ERs owed the largest portion of their population growth to international migration. In the five other ERs in Ontario in which the population increased during the last period, intraprovincial migration exchanges were behind most of the growth. As for the four ERs that posted a decline or slowdown during the last year, net interprovincial migration losses were generally the reason.

In this province, the Toronto ER recorded the highest natural increase rate, at 5.4 per thousand, representing an increase of 34,600 people (70,200 births and 35,600 deaths). By contrast, the Muskoka–Kawarthas ER recorded the lowest natural increase in Ontario (-2.8 per thousand), representing a net loss of 1,100 people (3,100 births and 4,100 deaths).

The Toronto ER was also notable in terms of international migration. As Toronto’s main growth driver, international migration in this ER (+10.5 per thousand) was the highest of all ERs in Ontario and the third highest in Canada. Net international migration was 67,100, accounting for 85% of the province’s growth due to international migration. However, it was the region’s lowest net balance since 1998/1999, when it was 63,500 people. Also, international migration was a small source of growth in five of Ontario’s 11 ERs (Kingston–Pembroke, Northeast, Stratford–Bruce Peninsula, Northwest and Muskoka–Kawarthas), with rates between -0.3 and 0.3 per thousand.

Between July 1, 2014 and June 30, 2015, net interprovincial migration was negative or nil in 10 of the 11 Ontario ERs, with Ottawa being the only ER posting growth. The most significant decreases from this factor occurred in the Northwest and Muskoka–Kawarthas ERs (-2.1 per thousand each).

Intraprovincial migration trends in Ontario revolved around Toronto. This ER posted a negative rate of -3.7 per thousand, or a net loss of 23,400 people, which mainly benefited the surrounding ERs, namely Muskoka–Kawarthas (+8.1 per thousand), Kitchener–Waterloo–Barrie (+7.1 per thousand) and Hamilton–Niagara Peninsula (+5.3 per thousand). Muskoka–Kawarthas was in first place in Canada for net intraprovincial migration.

Younger age structures for the Toronto and Kitchener–Waterloo–Barrie ERs than for Canada

Although the age structure in Ontario on July 1, 2015 was similar to the national average, not all ERs had the same profile. The Toronto and Kitchener–Waterloo–Barrie ERs were the only ones in which the proportion of persons aged 0 to 14 years was higher than for Canada and the proportion of persons aged 65  and older was lower. Moreover, they were two of only three ERs in Ontario with a median age lower than that in Canada (40.5 years), at 39.0 years for Toronto and 40.1 years for Kitchener–Waterloo–Barrie. London was third, with a median age of 40.2 years.

On July 1, 2015, the Toronto ER had the smallest proportion of persons aged 65 and older in Ontario (14.1%), while the Muskoka–Kawarthas ER had the largest proportion of persons in this age group (24.0%). Muskoka–Kawarthas was also the ER with the smallest proportion of persons aged 0 to 14 years (12.9%) among the Ontario ERs. The largest proportion of people under 15 was found in the Northwest ER (16.9%).

Figure 2.3 compares the ER with the youngest population (Northwest) with the ER with the oldest population (Muskoka–Kawarthas) in Ontario on July 1, 2015. Although the differences between the age pyramids of the two ERs are small, persons aged 65 and older account for a larger proportion of the population in Muskoka–Kawarthas than in Northwest, with the top of the pyramid for Muskoka–Kawarthas being wider, especially from 60 years and over. In addition, the size of the working-age population is proportionally larger in Northwest, as is the size of the youth population, as shown by the narrower base of the pyramid for Muskoka–Kawarthas. In Muskoka-Kawarthas, population aging is fed by natural decrease year after year and by internal migration losses among persons aged 18 to 24 years, combined with migration gains among persons 45 to 64 years.

Population aging faster in Ontario’s ERs than in the rest of the country

Over the last decade (2005-2015), the highest increase in median age occurred in the Muskoka–Kawarthas ER (+5.8 years). While the median age for this population was 43.6 years on July 1, 2005, it rose to 49.4 years on July 1, 2015, the highest in Ontario. The pace of population aging was at least twice as fast as the national average (+1.9 years) in two other Ontario ERs: Windsor–Sarnia (+4.5 years) and Stratford–Bruce Peninsula (+4.1 years).

The Toronto, Ottawa and London ERs had the slowest aging rates in Ontario, their median ages increasing 2.2 years, 2.3 years and 2.4 years, respectively. These increases, although modest at the provincial level, remain slightly higher than the increases observed for Canada as a whole.

Regional portrait: Prairies

Prairie ERs post the strongest population increases in Canada

In the Prairie provinces^Note 3 between July 1, 2014 and June 30, 2015, the strongest population increase occurred in the Calgary ER (Alta.) (+22.6 per thousand). The second and third highest population increases in the Prairies also occurred in Alberta, namely in Edmonton (+22.0 per thousand) and Red Deer (+17.1 per thousand). In the ranking of the strongest annual population growth rates among the 76 ERs in Canada, these three regions were surpassed only by Nunavut (+22.9 per thousand).

The ERs in the Prairies differed greatly from those in the rest of Canada because of the vitality of their population growth. Eight of Canada’s 10 fastest-growing ERs in the past year were Prairie ERs. Of these, three were Alberta and Saskatchewan, and two were in Manitoba.

Growth slows down in all Prairie ERs

The slowdown in growth in the Prairie ERs should be noted, since, in each of the 22 ERs, growth in 2014/2015 was lower than that in 2013/2014. For example, the growth rate of the Wood Buffalo–Cold Lake ER fell from 22.4 per thousand to 10.3 per thousand. Major slowdowns in growth also occurred in Edmonton (from +33.0 per thousand to +22.0 per thousand) and Calgary (from +33.3 per thousand to +22.6 per thousand). Across Canada, only three British Columbia ERs experienced more significant growth rate declines.

Also, three Prairie ERs posted negative growth, specifically Parklands (Man.) (-13.9 per thousand), Yorkton–Melville (Sask.) (-9.6 per thousand) and Swift Current–Moose Jaw (Sask.) (-1.6 per thousand).

Migration slows down in the Prairies

In recent years, some Prairie ERs have posted some of the strongest growth in Canada. These regions benefited largely from international and interprovincial migration to increase their populations. Yet, in 2014/2015, these components slowed down or remained stable in every Prairie ER.

In 16 of the 22 Prairie ERs, the natural increase was above the national average (+3.4 per thousand). With 1,000 births and 200 deaths, the Northern ER (Sask.) had the highest natural increase in the Prairies (+18.9 per thousand) and the second highest rate in Canada, behind Nunavut (+19.4 per thousand). In fact, of the 10 ERs with the greatest natural increase, six are in the Prairies. Conversely, Yorkton–Melville (Sask.) is the only Prairie ER in which the natural increase (-1.8 per thousand) resulted in a population decrease.

Of all the Prairie ERs, international migration had the greatest impact on the growth rate of Winnipeg (Man.) (+18.1 per thousand). This was the highest rate among the 76 ERs in Canada. The Prairie ER with the second highest rate was Saskatoon–Biggar (Sask.) (+9.9 per thousand). This contrasts with the 2013/2014 period, during which five ERs had international migration rates greater than 10 per thousand. The most significant decreases in the rate occurred in Alberta ERs, specifically Edmonton (from 12.3 per thousand to 3.1 per thousand), Calgary (from 14.7 per thousand to 5.8 per thousand), and Wood Buffalo–Cold Lake (from 8.3 per thousand to -0.3 per thousand). Also, Banff–Jasper–Rocky Mountain House was the only ER in Canada in which net international migration was significantly negative (-2.2 per thousand).

Interprovincial migration played a leading role in the growth of a number of Prairie ERs, especially in Alberta. During 2014/2015, Wood Buffalo–Cold Lake (Alta.) had the highest net interprovincial migration rate (+16.5 per thousand) in Canada. Since the early 2000s, this ER has had the highest growth rates from interprovincial migration. Moreover, during 2014/2015, seven of the 10 ERs in Canada with the strongest growth from interprovincial migration were in Alberta. Despite that, all the Prairie ERs had rates less than or equal to those in 2013/2014. In addition, unlike Alberta, four Manitoba ERs were among the 10 ERs with the strongest decrease from interprovincial migration.

The intraprovincial migration rate in the Wood Buffalo–Cold Lake ER (Alta.) is the lowest in Canada (-20.0 per thousand). Conversely, Southeast (Man.) and Interlake (Man.) had the highest intraprovincial migration rates in the Prairies, at 7.7 per thousand and 7.2 per thousand, respectively.

Young people account for a significant proportion of the population in all Prairie ERs

On July 1, 2015, the Prairie ERs had a relatively younger age structure than the rest of Canada. First, the proportion of young persons aged 0 to 14 was above the national average in all 22 Prairie ERs. In addition, the proportion of persons aged 65 and older was below the Canadian average in most of the ERs (17 of 22). Finally, only four ERs in this part of Canada had more persons aged 65 and older than persons 0 to 14 years (Parklands, Man.; Yorkton–Melville, Sask.; Swift Current–Moose Jaw, Sask.; and Interlake, Man.).

In the Prairies, the Northern ER (Sask.) stood out because of its large proportion of children between 0 and 14 years (31.7%), the largest proportion among all ERs in Canada. This ER also had the smallest proportion of persons aged 65 and older (6.1%) among the 10 provinces. The smallest proportion of young people aged 0 to 14 years among Prairie ERs was in Winnipeg (Man.), at 16.3%, which was still above the national average (16.0%).

The age structures of the ERs of Wood Buffalo–Cold Lake (Alta.) and Calgary (Alta.) stood out for the relatively smaller proportion of the 65-and-older age group and for the sizable proportion of the working-age population (15 to 64 years). With 72.7% of the population between 15 and 64 years in Wood Buffalo–Cold Lake (Alta.) and 71.5% in Calgary (Alta.), these proportions were the highest in the Prairies (68.7%) and among the highest in Canada (67.8%).

Figure 2.4 compares the Prairie ERs with the youngest population (Northern, Sask.) and the oldest population (Parklands, Man.). The very wide base of the pyramid for the Northern ER shows the large number of young people in its population. Conversely, the pyramid for the Parklands ER shows the predominance of older age groups compared with other age groups, especially those 50 years and older. This ER also stands out for the relatively low proportion of individuals aged 20 to 40 years.

Populations in Prairie ERs are aging at a slower pace than in the rest of Canada

Between July 1, 2005 and July 1, 2015, the increase in the median age of the population was lower in 19 of the 22 Prairie ERs than in Canada as a whole (+1.9 years). Five Prairie ERs even had a slight decline in median age during this 10-year period, with Southwest (Man.) posting the largest decrease (-1.4 years).

Only four of the 22 ERs had a median age greater than that in Canada on July 1, 2015. The highest median age among these regions was 45.6 years, in Parklands (Man.). By contrast, the Northern (Sask.) and Northern (Man.) ERs recorded the lowest median ages in the 10 Canadian provinces, namely 25.0 years and 26.4 years, respectively.

Regional portrait: British Columbia

Strong population growth in southern British Columbia

Of British Columbia’s eight ERs, three recorded a population increase and four recorded a decrease between July 1, 2014 and June 30, 2015. The ERs of Thompson–Okanagan (+14.5 per thousand), Lower Mainland–Southwest (+12.0 per thousand) and Vancouver Island and Coast (+9.2 per thousand) recorded significant population increases, considering that the growth for all three was greater than that of Canada as a whole (+8.6 per thousand).

For Thompson–Okanagan and Vancouver Island and Coast, the growth had accelerated significantly in comparison with the growth rate in the last five-year period, which was 6.5 per thousand and 5.8 per thousand, respectively. In addition, with 2,876,800 inhabitants (61.4% of the province’s population), Lower Mainland–Southwest was the second most populous ER in Canada, behind Toronto.

Several ERs post population losses

The five other ERs in the province had negative or neutral growth in 2014/2015. For three of the ERs, there was a major slowdown in growth. In fact, no ER in Canada had a greater growth rate decrease between 2013/2014 and 2014/2015 than the North Coast ER (from +4.2 to -16.9 per thousand), Northeast ER (from +6.4 to -12.5 per thousand) and Cariboo ER (from +0.1 to -17.1 per thousand). The growth rates of Cariboo and North Coast in 2014/2015 were the two lowest of the 76 ERs in Canada.

Different types of migration affect growth in British Columbia

Of the three ERs whose populations increased, two were mainly boosted by interprovincial migration (Thompson–Okanagan, and Vancouver Island and Coast), while the main driver of growth in Lower Mainland–Southwest was international migration. Intraprovincial migration was the main reason for population decreases in declining ERs, except for Northwest, where interprovincial migration was the main factor.

The Northeast ER posted the strongest natural increase in the province (+9.0 per thousand). Conversely, natural increase rate was -1.4 per thousand in the Vancouver Island and Coast ER and Thompson–-Okanagan ER.

Among the ERs in British Columbia, international migration was at its highest in Lower Mainland–Southwest (+7.6 per thousand). This ER’s net international migration of 22,700 accounted for 96.0% of the provincial total. In the remaining seven ERs, the international migration growth rate remained below the national average (+5.3 per thousand). The only other region with significant net international migration was Northeast (+3.0 per thousand).

Between July 1, 2014 and June 30, 2015, net interprovincial migration was positive in six of the eight ERs in British Columbia. The highest interprovincial migration growth rates were in the Vancouver Island and Coast ER and Thompson–Okanagan ER (+6.4 per thousand each). These two ERs and the Kootenay ER were among the 10 ERs with the strongest growth from interprovincial migration in Canada, along with seven Alberta ERs.

Net intraprovincial migration was negative or stable in six of the eight ERs. The most significant losses were in ERs in the northwestern part of the province, namely Nechako (-11.1 per thousand) and Cariboo and North Coast (-4.1 per thousand). The only ER in Canada with a greater decrease than Nechako’s was Wood Buffalo–Cold Lake (Alta.). The British Columbia ERs that benefited from internal migration were Thompson–Okanagan (+4.1 per thousand) and Vancouver Island and Coast (+2.7 per thousand).

ERs in northern B.C. are younger than ERs in southern B.C.

The ERs in the northern part of the province stood out sharply from those in the southern part with respect to the population’s age structure. On July 1, 2015, the three northernmost ERs in British Columbia (North Coast, Nechako and Northeast) were the only ones in the province where the proportion of persons aged 0 to 14 years was above the Canadian average and the proportion of persons aged 65 and older was below the Canadian average. The ERs in southern British Columbia were generally older, with more people aged 65 and older than people aged 0 to 14 years, except for Lower Mainland-Southwest, where they accounted for roughly the same proportions.

The Vancouver Island and Coast ER and Thompson–Okanagan ER had the largest proportions of persons 65 years and older in the province (22.4%). By contrast, this age group accounted for only 9.6% of the population of the Northeast ER, which stood out also because it had a large proportion of persons aged 0 to 14 years (20.5%). In British Columbia, the lowest proportion of young people aged 0 to 14 was in Vancouver Island and Coast (13.2%).

Figure 2.5 compares the age pyramids of the British Columbia ERs with the oldest population (Vancouver Island and Coast) and the youngest population (Northeast). In Northeast, the age group representing the largest proportion of the population was 25 to 29 years, compared with 55 to 59 years for Vancouver Island and Coast. Accordingly, the top of the age pyramid for Vancouver Island and Coast is wider than that of Northeast, while the base of the pyramid for Northeast is wider, indicating greater aging in Vancouver Island and Coast. The main reason for this is the natural decrease that prevails in Vancouver Island and Coast and the high birth rate in Northeast.

Most ERs aging faster than in all of Canada

Between July 1, 2005 and July 1, 2015, the median age increased 0.8 year in the Northeast ER, the lowest median age in British Columbia (34.2 years). In every other British Columbia ERs, the median age of the population increased faster than in all of Canada (+1.9 year). Population aging was fastest in the Nechako ER, with a median age increase of +4.3 years.

Regional portrait: Territories

Steady population growth for the three Nunavut census divisions

In Canada’s three territories, the highest population growth in 2014/2015 was mainly in the census divisions (CDs) of Nunavut. The Keewatin CD (Nvt.) recorded the strongest population growth of the 10 CDs in the Canadian territories (+25.0 per thousand). It was followed by the CDs of Baffin (Nvt.), Region 4 (Fort Simpson, N.W.T.) and Kitikmeot (Nvt.), with annual population increases of 24.7 per thousand, 14.5 per thousand and 14.3 per thousand, respectively.

Three CDs in the Northwest Territories have experienced population losses

In the territories, three out of 10 CDs recorded significant population decreases. All these CDs were in the Northwest Territories. Region 2 (Norman Wells, N.W.T.), with a population growth rate of -13.1 per thousand, had the largest population decrease. Region 3 (Behchokò, N.W.T.) and Region 5 (Hay River, N.W.T.) were the two other CDs in Canada’s territories that posted a population decrease, with growth rates of -9.1 per thousand and -6.5 per thousand, respectively.

Many more births than deaths is the main reason for population growth in CDs in the territories

Natural increase was the main driver of growth in each CD in Canada’s territories between July 1, 2014 and June 30, 2015. Population decreases in CDs in the territories during this period were mainly attributable to negative net interprovincial migration (Region 2 and Region 5) or to negative net intraprovincial migration (Region 3).

The number of births largely exceeded the number of deaths in each CD in Nunavut, the Northwest Territories and Yukon. In fact, the natural increase of all the CDs in the territories was above the national average (+3.4 per thousand). The Keewatin CD (Nvt.) recorded the highest natural increase (+25.3 per thousand) of all the CDs in Canada. The lowest natural increase in the territories was in Yukon (+5.7 per thousand), but it was still significantly higher than the national average.

Interprovincial migration varied greatly among the CDs in the territories. All the Nunavut CDs recorded gains in their population exchanges with other provinces and territories and Region 4 (N.W.T.) was the CD with the greatest net interprovincial migration (+8.4 per thousand) in all the territories. Conversely, all the other CDs in the Northwest Territories posted negative interprovincial migration. The greatest decrease from interprovincial migration was in Region 5 (N.W.T.), with a rate of -19.2 per thousand.

A much younger age structure in CDs in the territories than in the rest of Canada

On July 1, 2015, the proportion of persons aged 65 and older did not surpass 10% in eight of the 10 CDs in the territories and always remained below the national average of 16.1%. Moreover, the number of persons under the age of 15 was twice that of persons aged 65 and older in all the CDs in the territories, except for Yukon and Region 5 (N.W.T.), which nevertheless had more young people than seniors.

More than one-third of the population of the Keewatin CD (Nvt.), was less than 15 years of age on July 1, 2014, the largest proportion (34.3%) of all CDs in Canada. This CD also had the second lowest proportion of persons aged 65 and older (3.4%) in the country. In other words, the Keewatin CD (Nvt.) had 10 times more young people aged 0 to 14 than persons aged 65 and older. Young people aged 0 to 14 represented more than 30% of the population of another CD, Kitikmeot (Nvt.), with a proportion of 30.4%.

Figure 2.6 compares the CDs with the youngest population (Keewatin, Nvt.) and the oldest population (Region 5, N.W.T.) in the territories. The proportion of children in Keewatin (Nvt.) is considerably larger than in Region 5 (N.W.T.), as demonstrated by the thickness of the base of the population pyramid of Keewatin. This is primarily due to higher levels of fertility and mortality in that CD. Also, for Region 5 (N.W.T.), the top of the pyramid, which is larger than that of Keewatin, indicates an older age structure.

The population in most CDs in the territories is aging at a similar rate than in Canada

Although the median age of the population in each CD in the territories is lower than in the rest of Canada, population aging between 2005 and 2015 is taking place at a similar pace to that of the whole country, except for Region 3 (N.W.T.), where the median age went from 31.5 years to 27.2 years (-4.4 years).

Also, the three CDs in the territories in which the population was aging the fastest were in the Northwest Territories. The greatest increase in median age between July 1, 2005 and July 1, 2015, occurred in Region 5 (N.W.T.), which increased from 31.7 years to 36.0 years (+4.4 years).

Summary table

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