Model-based principal field crop estimates, August 2026

Released: 2026-09-16

In 2026, Canadian farmers are projected to produce more corn for grain and soybeans but less wheat, canola, barley and oats, compared with 2025, according to recent yield model estimates using satellite imagery and agroclimatic data.

Conditions across the Prairies have been variable throughout the growing season. In some areas, lower-than-average precipitation has resulted in below-average crop conditions, while crop conditions in parts of Western Canada that received sufficient precipitation were above average. In Alberta, provincial reports indicated that almost 60% of major crops were rated as being in good to excellent condition at the end of August. In Saskatchewan, lower rainfall in some parts of the province later in the summer may have impacted crop development which was partially offset by moderate temperatures for the period, reducing crop stress. In Manitoba, northern parts of the growing region received above-normal precipitation, while precipitation was near normal in southern parts of the province. Sufficiently warm temperatures throughout the growing season as of the end of August helped crops to develop normally.

Like in the Prairies, growing conditions in Eastern Canada have been variable. In general, temperatures have been below average to average throughout the growing season in much of Ontario, but above normal for most other eastern provinces. Rainfall has been above average in much of Ontario and western Quebec throughout the growing season.

Map 1 
Departure from average precipitation (in millimetres) from April 1 to August 31, 2026 (during the growing season), by province

Map 2 
Mean temperature difference from normal (in degrees Celsius) from August 1 to August 31, 2026 (during the growing season), by province

Yield estimates based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index indicate that plant health in Western Canada varied as of August 31. In areas that received sufficient precipitation and warm temperatures, crop conditions were considered higher to much higher than normal. In drier areas, crop conditions varied from similar to lower when compared with historical averages.

In Eastern Canada, plant health was generally average thanks to sufficient precipitation, which, coupled with good temperatures, resulted in crop conditions that were considered similar to normal or higher than normal as of August 31.

Map 3 
Vegetation growth index, week of August 24 to August 30, 2026, compared with normal, by census consolidated subdivision for Western Canada

Map 4 
Vegetation growth index, week of August 24 to August 30, 2026, compared with normal, by census consolidated subdivision for Eastern Canada

Wheat production expected to decline as harvested area decreases

Nationally, wheat production is projected to decrease 10.9% year over year to 36.1 million tonnes in 2026. The decrease in total wheat production is the result of both lower expected harvested area (-5.6% to 24.8 million acres) and lower anticipated yields (-5.6% to 53.6 bushels per acre). While yields are anticipated to fall compared with their record-high levels one year earlier, they are expected to remain above the five-year average because of overall good growing conditions in Western Canada.

The decrease in expected total wheat production is led by spring wheat production, which is anticipated to fall 10.9% to 26.5 million tonnes in 2026. The decrease is a result of lower yields, which are anticipated to fall by 7.7% to 55.0 bushels per acre, while projected harvested area is expected to decline 3.4% to 17.7 million acres. Durum wheat yields are expected to edge down 1.4% to 41.3 bushels per acre, while harvested area is expected to fall 10.9% to 5.7 million acres, contributing to an anticipated decrease in durum wheat production (-12.2% to 6.4 million tonnes).

Wheat production in Saskatchewan is projected to fall by 9.7% to 16.9 million tonnes in 2026 because of lower yields (-5.7% to 48.2 bushels per acre) and harvested area (-4.3% to 12.9 million acres).

Wheat yields in Alberta are expected to fall by 4.4% to 54.5 bushels per acre in 2026, while harvested area is projected to drop by 6.7% to 7.4 million acres, resulting in a 10.9% decrease in production to 10.9 million tonnes.

In Manitoba, harvested area of wheat is expected to fall by 8.7% to 3.0 million acres, while yields are anticipated to decrease by 8.9% to 60.5 bushels per acre. As a result, total wheat production is anticipated to fall by 16.8% year over year to 4.9 million tonnes.

Wheat production in Ontario (the majority of which is winter wheat) is projected to fall by 8.9% to 2.8 million tonnes year over year in 2026 on lower yields (-2.1% to 92.8 bushels per acre) while harvested area is anticipated to fall 6.9% to 1.1 million acres.

Canola production anticipated to fall on lower yields

At the national level, canola yields are expected to decrease by 8.3% to 41.8 bushels per acre in 2026. Despite higher harvested area, which is expected to rise 8.0% to 23.2 million acres (the highest harvested area on record), production is anticipated to edge down 0.8% to 22.1 million tonnes.

Canola yields in Saskatchewan are expected to fall 7.3% to 41.9 bushels per acre in 2026, down from record levels in 2025, but should remain above the five-year average for the province. Higher anticipated harvested area (+9.9% to a record 13.3 million acres) is expected to offset lower yields, resulting in higher production (+1.8% to 12.7 million tonnes).

Canola production in Alberta is expected to decline 3.8% in 2026, falling to 6.1 million tonnes. The anticipated decrease is the result of lower yields, which are expected to fall 9.3% to 41.2 bushels per acre, offsetting higher harvested area, which is projected to rise 6.0% to 6.5 million acres.

In Manitoba, yields are expected to decrease by 9.3% to 42.9 bushels per acre, offsetting higher harvested area, which is anticipated to rise by 5.0% to 3.2 million acres. This would result in an expected decrease in production (-4.8% to 3.1 million tonnes).

Higher yields and harvested area expected to push production of corn for grain up

Nationally, corn for grain production is projected to increase by 11.3% to 16.5 million tonnes in 2026. If realized, this would be the largest corn for grain production on record, surpassing the previous record of 15.4 million tonnes set in 2023. The expected record production is driven by higher yields, which are anticipated to climb by 4.3% to 169.1 bushels per acre, while harvested area is expected to rise to 6.8% to 3.9 million acres.

Ontario, the largest corn-for-grain-producing province, is expected to see higher production, rising 9.8% to 10.4 million tonnes on higher harvested area (+3.5% to 2.2 million acres) and higher yields (+6.0% to 186.2 bushels per acre). Anticipated higher yields are likely being driven by better growing conditions in the province in 2026 compared with 2025, largely because of increased precipitation.

Corn for grain production in Quebec is projected to rise by 19.9% to 3.5 million tonnes in 2026. Yields are anticipated to rise by 10.5% to 155.9 bushels per acre, while harvested area is expected to increase by 8.5% to 892,600 acres.

Manitoba corn production is expected to rise to a record 2.3 million tonnes (+5.8%) in 2026. Higher harvested area in 2026 (+14.9% to 666,000 acres) is expected to more than offset lower anticipated yields (-7.9% to 135.4 bushels per acre).

Soybean production expected to increase

Nationally, soybean production is projected to increase by 7.8% year over year to 7.5 million tonnes in 2026. The increase is due to higher yields (+4.7% to 46.4 bushels per acre) and higher harvested area which is expected to increase 3.0% to 5.9 million acres.

Farmers in Ontario are projected to produce 4.0 million tonnes of soybeans in 2026 (+11.8% year over year). Harvested area is expected to edge down 0.4% to 2.9 million acres while yields are expected to climb 12.3% to 52.0 bushels per acre.

In Manitoba, soybean harvested area is anticipated to rise 15.6% to 1.9 million acres but is expected to be offset by lower yields, which are projected to fall by 13.7% year over year to 37.8 bushels per acre. As a result, soybean production is projected to edge down by 0.3% to 2.0 million tonnes in 2026.

In Quebec, soybean production is projected to rise by 14.0% to 1.4 million tonnes in 2026 on higher yields (+17.4% to 47.9 bushels per acre), offsetting an expected decrease in harvested area (-2.9% to 1.0 million acres).

Barley and oats anticipated to fall

Nationally, barley production is anticipated to edge down 0.1% year over year to reach 9.7 million tonnes in 2026, driven by lower yields, falling 8.2% to 72.9 bushels per acre. Harvested area is projected to increase by 8.8% to 6.1 million acres. Alberta is expected to produce less barley, decreasing by 3.8% to 5.1 million tonnes because of lower yields (-11.3% to 71.6 bushels per acre). In Saskatchewan, production is expected to increase by 9.6% to 3.9 million tonnes because of higher harvested area (+13.1% to 2.3 million acres).

Nationally, oat production is anticipated to fall by 22.7% to 3.0 million tonnes, a result of both lower yields (-3.5% to 94.7 bushels per acre) and lower harvested area (-19.9% to 2.1 million acres) in 2026.

Contact information

For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact us (toll-free 1-800-263-1136; 514-283-8300; infostats@statcan.gc.ca) or Media Relations (statcan.mediahotline-ligneinfomedias.statcan@statcan.gc.ca).