Economic and Social Reports
Becoming journeypersons and early career economic outcomes: A comparison of childhood immigrants and Canadian-born individuals by sex
DOI: https://doi.org/10.25318/36280001202600800002-eng
Text begins
Abstract
This study examines disparities in apprenticeship certification and employment income between childhood immigrants (individuals who arrive in Canada before age 18) and Canadian-born apprentices by sex. It uses integrated administrative data from the Longitudinal Immigration Database, the Registered Apprenticeship Information System and the T1 Family File. Results show that male childhood immigrants were 3 percentage points less likely than their Canadian-born counterparts to obtain certification, while female childhood immigrants were 5 percentage points less likely than their Canadian-born counterparts to obtain certification. Employment income trajectories also differed by sex. Compared with Canadian-born males, male journeypersons who immigrated as children earned approximately 10% less four years before certification, 8% less two years before certification and 6% to 7% less from certification to four years after certification. By contrast, most earnings differences among females were not statistically significant after controlling for sociodemographic, program, trade and employment characteristics. One exception was that female childhood immigrants earned approximately 7% more two years before certification. These findings contribute to understanding how childhood immigrant status is associated with different apprenticeship outcomes for males and females, with certification differences observed for both males and females but persistent employment income differences observed primarily among males.
Authors
Allison Leanage is with the Health Analysis and Modelling Division at Statistics Canada and Max Stick is with the Economic and Social Analysis and Modelling Division, Analytical Studies and Modelling Branch, at Statistics Canada.
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank Tahsin Mehdi, Feng Hou, Hyeongsuk Jin, Graham Ziegler, Rubab Arim and Martha Patterson from Statistics Canada for their comments and suggestions.
Introduction
Canada experienced population growth in recent years, largely driven by immigration. This has brought housing issues and infrastructure development needs to the forefront (Government of Canada, 2024; Statistics Canada, 2023a). Additionally, an aging population—and, in turn, an aging workforce in certain occupations, such as the skilled trades—has led to potentially higher demands for some skilled trades workers (Statistics Canada, 2022; Government of Canada, 2024). In response, the Government of Canada has emphasized the importance of expanding and strengthening pathways into skilled trades careers as part of broader economic and workforce development priorities (Office of the Prime Minister, 2025). Apprenticeship training represents a primary pathway into these occupations by helping individuals to become journeypersons through
Although childhood immigrants—those who arrive in Canada before the age of 18 years—may earn Canadian educational credentials, they remain an understudied group within apprenticeship pathways. Recent research has begun to address this gap by examining certification rates and employment income over time (Leanage, 2026; Leanage & Stick, forthcoming). For example, recent studies have shown that childhood immigrant journeypersons were less likely to obtain certification than their Canadian-born counterparts, even after accounting for sociodemographic, program and employment characteristics (Leanage, 2026). Moreover, among those who become certified journeypersons, childhood immigrants had lower annual income earnings before, at, and after certification relative to Canadian-born journeypersons, even after accounting for observable characteristics (Leanage & Stick, forthcoming).
A large body of research highlights persistent sex stratification within the skilled trades, where women—particularly in male-dominated occupations—face barriers to entry, training opportunities and earnings progression (Jin et al., 2020; Frank & Frenette, 2019). Yet, little is known about how the intersection of immigrant status and sex jointly shape apprenticeship completion and employment income. Given that males have been shown to be overrepresented in the trades (Leanage & Mehdi, 2026), understanding how childhood immigrant males and females navigate certification and subsequent labour market outcomes is essential for assessing equity and integration within this segment of the workforce.
This article examines disparities in obtaining certification and employment income by childhood immigrant status and sex. Specifically, two research questions are addressed: (1) whether the likelihood of obtaining certification varies between childhood immigrant and Canadian-born apprentices by sex, before and after accounting for sociodemographic, program and employment characteristics; and (2) whether annual earnings (log) among certified journeypersons vary by childhood immigrant status and sex before, at, and after certification, and whether these differences persist after accounting for other factors.
The analysis draws on two complementary components. The first component examines certification among registered apprentices who entered apprenticeship programs from 2008 to 2015 and either obtained or did not obtain certification (within two years of program duration), drawing on the sample and methodology used in the Leanage (2026). The second component examines employment income trajectories of certified journeypersons, following cohorts certified from 2008 to 2018 (from four years before to certification through four years after certification), using the sample from Leanage and Stick
Childhood immigrants are less likely to become certified journeypersons than Canadian-born individuals, and this gap is more prevalent among females
Chart 1 presents the predicted probabilities of obtaining certification by sex and childhood immigrant status. In Model 1, which controls for year of certification, childhood immigrants were less likely to obtain certification than Canadian-born apprentices among both males and females (by 5 and 4 percentage points, respectively). In Model 2, which accounts for sociodemographic, income, employment, and program characteristics, childhood immigrants remained less likely to obtain certification, with gaps of 3 percentage points for males and 5 percentage points for females. Overall, the results indicate persistent certification disadvantages for childhood immigrants regardless of sex.
Data table for Chart 1
| Unadjusted | Adjusted | |
|---|---|---|
| estimated percentage point difference |
||
Sources: Statistics Canada, Longitudinal Immigration Database, Education and Labour Market Longitudinal Platform, 2023. |
||
| Male | -0.05 Data table for chart 1 Note *** | -0.03 Data table for chart 1 Note *** |
| Female | -0.04 Data table for chart 1 Note *** | -0.05 Data table for chart 1 Note *** |
Additional analyses (not shown) suggest that observable characteristics explain different shares of the certification gap—about 35% for females and about 45% for males. Among females, the largest contributions are associated with income distribution, particularly earnings below $15,000 (42%), regional differences in British Columbia (38%), and pre-registration credits (27%), while differences in apprenticeship program duration reduce the gap (−92%). Among males, the explained portion of the gap is primarily associated with income distribution, especially earnings below $15,000 (48%), pre-registration credits (27%) and differences in age structure (−21%). The results indicate that certification gaps are partly shaped by differences in labour market conditions, previous training and demographic composition, with the relative contribution of these factors differing between females and males.
Male childhood immigrant journeypersons had lower annual earnings compared with male Canadian-born journeypersons before, at, and after certification
Chart 2 presents estimates from ordinary least square regression models, showing sex differences in log annual income earnings by childhood immigrant status over time relative to certification, accounting for sociodemographic, employment and program-related
Data table for Chart 2
| Time | Female | Male | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unadjusted | Adjusted Data table for chart 2 Note 1 | Unadjusted | Adjusted Data table for chart 2 Note 1 | |
| coefficient | ||||
Sources: Statistics Canada, Longitudinal Immigration Database, Education and Labour Market Longitudinal Platform, 2023 |
||||
| 4 years before certification | -0.08 | 0.01 | -0.17 Data table for chart 2 Note * | -0.11 Data table for chart 2 Note *** |
| 2 years before certification | -0.07 | 0.07 Data table for chart 2 Note *** | -0.16 Data table for chart 2 Note ** | -0.08 Data table for chart 2 Note *** |
| During certification | -0.15 Data table for chart 2 Note * | -0.01 | -0.13 Data table for chart 2 Note ** | -0.07 Data table for chart 2 Note *** |
| 2 years after certification | -0.16 Data table for chart 2 Note ** | -0.03 | -0.11 Data table for chart 2 Note * | -0.07 Data table for chart 2 Note *** |
| 4 years after certification | -0.15 Data table for chart 2 Note ** | -0.02 | -0.09 | -0.07 Data table for chart 2 Note *** |
Among males, childhood immigrant journeypersons consistently had lower annual earnings than Canadian-born journeypersons across all time points relative to certification with controls. In Model 1, childhood immigrant males had approximately 14% to 15% lower annual earnings than Canadian-born journeypersons two and four years before certification and about 12% lower earnings at the time of certification. Although the earnings gap narrowed after certification, childhood immigrant males continued to earn about 10% less two years after certification. By four years after certification, the difference in earnings between childhood immigrant and Canadian-born journeypersons was no longer statistically significant. In Model 2, childhood immigrant males had about 10% lower annual earnings four years before certification, about 8% lower two years before certification, and roughly 7% lower at the time of certification and in the post-certification period (6% to 7%) relative to Canadian-born journeypersons. Additional analysis (not shown) indicated that observable characteristics account for a substantial share of the earnings differences among males, with the largest contribution coming from regional differences (reducing the gap by about 30% to 36%), followed by union membership (about 14% to 18%), registered pension participation (about 14% to 22%) and trade specialization (about 11% to 14%).
By contrast, among female journeypersons, most differences in earnings between childhood immigrants and Canadian-born individuals were not statistically significant. In Model 1, childhood immigrant females earned approximately 14% less at certification, 15% less two years after certification, and 14% less four years after certification relative to Canadian-born female journeypersons. However, after accounting for sociodemographic, program, trade, and employment characteristics, these differences were no longer statistically significant. The only statistically significant difference observed was two years before certification, when childhood immigrant females earned approximately 7% more than Canadian-born female journeypersons. Additional analysis (not shown) demonstrated that the earnings difference two years before certification for females was largely explained by observable characteristics, particularly apprenticeship program duration (92%), union coverage (22%), registered pension participation (14%), regional differences (12%), and trade specialization (10%). Overall, the results suggest broadly similar earnings patterns between childhood immigrant and Canadian-born females across the certification trajectory.
Conclusion
This article provided evidence that integration into the skilled trades among childhood immigrants varies by sex and across different stages of the apprenticeship pathway, including early career income outcomes. Childhood immigrant journeypersons, regardless of sex, were less likely to become certified journeypersons than their Canadian-born counterparts, with larger and more persistent gaps observed among females. However, employment income trajectories varied by sex. Among male journeypersons, childhood immigrants consistently had lower annual employment income earnings before, at, and after certification, relative to their Canadian-born counterparts after accounting for sociodemographic, program and employment characteristics. Among female journeypersons, income differences across the certification trajectory were mixed and less consistent. Additional analyses indicate that differences in pre-apprenticeship income distribution, regional labour market conditions, previous training credits and demographic composition explain a substantial portion of certification and earnings gaps, with the relative contribution of these factors varying by sex.
This study extends existing research on immigrant journeypersons by focusing on labour market integration of childhood immigrants and highlighting how disparities emerge at multiple stages of the apprenticeship and early career pathway. Consistent with previous work (Leanage, 2026), childhood immigrants—regardless of sex—are less likely than their Canadian-born counterparts to obtain certification and become journeypersons. Aligned with Leanage and Stick (forthcoming), childhood immigrants who become certified also have lower annual income earnings before, at, and after certification. However, sex-disaggregated analyses show that this overall disadvantage is driven primarily by childhood immigrant males, who experience persistent income disadvantages across the certification trajectory. These results underscore the importance of examining skilled trades pathways by immigrant status and sex, particularly in the context of meeting current and future labour market demand in Canada.
The patterns observed in the present study are broadly similar to those of adult immigrants, particularly among males, despite differences in age of arrival (see Paul et al., 2026). This suggests that adult and childhood immigrants may experience similar labour market disadvantages in skilled trades when compared with the Canadian-born population. However, because this study does not directly compare childhood and adult immigrants, further research is needed to examine the extent these groups differ in their post-certification employment outcomes. Further research could also examine trade-specific and institutional factors—such as wage-setting arrangements, union coverage, firm size, regional labour market conditions and access to employment networks—that may be associated with observed differences in post-certification outcomes among childhood immigrants. Longer-term analyses following journeypersons beyond four years after certification, as well as qualitative or mixed-method approaches, would provide further insights on how workplace practices, job assignment processes and career progression contribute to variation in labour market outcomes within the skilled trades.
References
Altonji, J. G., L. B. Kahn, and J. D. Speer (2016). Cashier or consultant? Entry labor market conditions, field of study, and career success. Journal of Labor Economics 34(S1), S361–S401.
Böhm, M. J., H.-M. von Gaudecker, and F. Schran (2024). Occupation growth, skill prices, and wage inequality. Journal of Labor Economics 42(1), 201–243.
Government of Canada. (2024). Solving the housing crisis: Canada’s housing plan. https://housing-infrastructure.canada.ca/housing-logement/housing-plan-report-rapport-plan-logement-eng.html
Government of Canada. (2024). Helping more Canadians build careers in skilled trades. Employment and Social Development Canada. https://www.canada.ca/en/employment-social-development/news/2023/08/helping-more-canadians-build-careers-in-skilled-trades.html
Frenette, M. and K. Frank. 2019. How Do Women in Male-dominated Apprenticeships Fare in the Labour Market? Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series. Ottawa: Statistics Canada. /n1/pub/11f0019m/11f0019m2019008-eng.htm
Kambourov, G. and I. Manovskii (2009). Occupational specificity of human capital. International Economic Review 50(1), 63–115.
Leanage, A. (2026). Becoming journeypersons: A comparative study of childhood immigrant apprentices and Canadian-born apprentices from registration to certification. Economic and Social Reports 6(5): p. 1-25. /n1/pub/36-28-0001/2026005/article/00002-eng.htm
Leanage, A. & Stick, M. (forthcoming). Longitudinal income trajectories of childhood immigrant of certified journeypersons in Canada.
Leanage, A., & Mehdi, T. (2026). Potential occupational exposure to artificial intelligence and automation among certified journeypersons in Canada. Economic and Social Reports 6(1): 1–5. https://doi.org/10.25318/36280001202600100001-eng
Paul, T., Jin, H., & Haan, M. (2026). Bridging capital: The income growth rate of Canadian trained immigrant and non-immigrant male and female apprentices. Social Science Research 135: 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssresearch.2025.103304
Office of the Prime Minister of Canada. (2025, May 21). Mandate letter. Government of Canada. https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/mandate-letters/2025/05/21/mandate-letter
Statistics Canada. (2022). Housing challenges remain for vulnerable populations in 2021. The Daily. /n1/daily-quotidien/220721/dq220721b-eng.htm
Statistics Canada. (2023a). 40 million strong: Canada reaches a new population milestone. /o1/en/plus/3861-40-million-strong-canada-reaches-new-population-milestone
Statistics Canada. (2023b). Earnings and mobility indicators for newly certified journeypersons in Canada, 2021. Ottawa: Statistics Canada. /n1/daily-quotidien/231214/dq231214b-eng.htm
- Date modified: